• Presumptive Democratic Party presidential nominee Joe Biden has taken an early lead in polls, but President Trump is likely to regain some momentum as the election nears and has proven himself adept at playing the news cycle to his advantage. The effectiveness of each campaign will be significantly challenged by the realities of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Who former Vice President Joe Biden selects as a vice presidential running mate is likely to have a big influence on his ability to motivate voter support.
  • The relationship between President Trump and the Republican Party will remain dynamic and occasionally contentious in the run-up to the election. Trump is likely to prioritize his re-election while maintaining his unconventional leadership style despite the fact that a focus on increased Republican Party consensus could help some down-ballot GOP candidates.
  • COVID-19 may well change voting as we know it, with slowly increasing acceptance of remote voting by mail taking precedence over in-person voting. Many election infrastructure innovations related to this change will be taking place on-the-fly in the lead-up to November.
  • Whoever is elected in November is likely to face daunting challenges related to the national pandemic response, the COVID-19 economy, and increasingly tenuous US-China relations.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.

There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary.

The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions of the speakers provided are not necessarily those of Natixis Investment Managers or any of its affiliates.