Jack Janasiewicz offers his tactical take on the macroeconomic environment in this podcast recorded on August 10, 2023.
- It seems like all of the excitement is in the bond market these days and everyone is shifting their outlooks.
- “Recession” is no longer what the cool kids are saying, and for the most part, the economic forecasts are being revised higher.
- The most recent data releases, particularly related to the labor market, are shifting back toward a more normal balance between goods and services employment, and wages are still growing, but more slowly.
- On the inflation front, CPI came in at 2.969% -- the first “2-handle” since March 2021 – and disinflation seems likely to persist.
- The Federal Reserve meeting in July was uneventful, and the pathway to a soft landing remains Chair Powell’s base case.
- With the most recent push higher in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond probing the 4% yield to maturity mark, a pause or a modest pullback in risk assets at these levels would certainly not surprise us.
- Technical indicators point towards an overbought market while the move higher in yields is creating some investor angst.
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