Jack Janasiewicz presents his take on the capital markets in this podcast recorded on April 11, 2022.

  • The S&P 500® gained just over 3.7% for March and has remained up strongly since the start of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Not surprisingly, US equity markets have been outperforming on a relative basis.
  • Inflation expectations appear to be drifting higher as rising oil prices affect so many aspects of the economy, from transportation and manufacturing to power generation and materials.
  • A key question is whether the Federal Reserve will need to raise the benchmark rate above their predicted neutral rate of 2.4% to help slow down growth.
  • While the inverted yield curve has had a pretty good track record at predicting recessions, there is more than one yield curve to consider beyond the 2-year versus 10-year – and the others are not inverted.
  • Other indicators are needed to predict a recession, especially when the job market is strong, corporate balance sheets are robust, and aggregate incomes are still quite elevated.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions.

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