Jack Janasiewicz offers his tactical take on the macroeconomic environment in this podcast recorded on February 7, 2023.
  • We’re starting to see signs of a soft landing, with strong but moderating job growth in December, increasing labor force participation, and normalizing wages.
  • Disinflation is here and it’s broadening out – and some of the global tail risks are receding.
  • While earnings season is upon us, there may also be some winds at our back, including normalizing supply chains and aggressive cost cutting.
  • Simply put – the economy is recovering from the Covid shock.
  • Yes, there are pockets of pain, but the labor market is strong. Consumption drives 70% of the US economy – and incomes drive consumption.
  • We are at an inflection point for inflation and growth: Inflation has established a rapid downtrend trajectory just as real growth is beginning to reaccelerate.
  • And while the Federal Reserve raised rates by another quarter point at its most recent meeting, Chair Powell’s tone in the press conference was noticeably dovish.
  • The Fed is no longer pushing back against the market – and the market took note.
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