Goldilocks vs. the Bears

By Jack Janasiewicz, CFA®



Jack Janasiewicz offers his tactical take on the macroeconomic environment in this podcast recorded on February 7, 2023.
  • We’re starting to see signs of a soft landing, with strong but moderating job growth in December, increasing labor force participation, and normalizing wages.
  • Disinflation is here and it’s broadening out – and some of the global tail risks are receding.
  • While earnings season is upon us, there may also be some winds at our back, including normalizing supply chains and aggressive cost cutting.
  • Simply put – the economy is recovering from the Covid shock.
  • Yes, there are pockets of pain, but the labor market is strong. Consumption drives 70% of the US economy – and incomes drive consumption.
  • We are at an inflection point for inflation and growth: Inflation has established a rapid downtrend trajectory just as real growth is beginning to reaccelerate.
  • And while the Federal Reserve raised rates by another quarter point at its most recent meeting, Chair Powell’s tone in the press conference was noticeably dovish.
  • The Fed is no longer pushing back against the market – and the market took note.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. The views and opinions are as of February 7, 2023 and may change based on market and other conditions. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary. Although Natixis Investment Managers believes the information provided in this material to be reliable, including that from third party sources, it does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

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