US Inflation Tracker

By Jack Janasiewicz, CFA® - Garrett Melson, CFA®

The US Inflation Tracker captures the trends that provide context in today’s economy. There may be some relief in sight as inflation continues to decline.

Wage Pressures Abating
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes their Wage Growth Tracker, which uses microdata from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly household survey that compares the wages of the same person 12 months apart. This helps to avoid distortions and measuring issues as the composition comparison remains consistent.

And what are we seeing? A marked slowing of wage growth now appears to be setting in. The current reading shows wages still growing at a pace of 5.1%, but below the previous month’s rate of 6.5% and well off the peak rate of 7.4% set back in June of last year. Signs of a cooling labor market? Yup. And this is helping to reduce inflation pressures going forward.

Atlanta Fed’s Median Wage Growth (1/31/97–4/30/23)
Atlanta Fed’s Median Wage Growth (1/31/97–4/30/23)Source: Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, Bloomberg


Investors Anticipate Lower Inflation
Inflation breakevens are the difference between the nominal yield on a fixed-rate investment and the real yield on an inflation-linked investment of similar maturity and credit quality. Said differently, the breakeven should be the implied inflation rate that makes an investor indifferent to holding a nominal bond versus an inflation-adjusted bond.

This implied inflation rate gives us an idea of what investors are expecting for inflation five or ten years out. And what do we see? That implied level of inflation continues to head lower, indicating confidence that the US Federal Reserve’s policy actions will prove successful. Inflation expectations remain well anchored.

US Inflation Breakevens (5/14/21–5/15/23)
US Inflation Breakevens (5/14/21–5/15/23)Source: Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, Bloomberg

Resource

US Inflation Tracker – May 2023
This in-depth chart deck highlights historical data related to:
• Personal consumption
• Inflation surprises
• Goods and services
• Base effects and surges
• Supply chain, shipping, and restocking
• Housing market pressures
• Wage pressures
• Inflation expectations


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This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed are as of May 16, 2023, and may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

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