Recession Outlook: Going, Going, Gone
Jack Janasiewicz offers his tactical take on the macroeconomic environment in this podcast recorded on August 10, 2023.
- It seems like all of the excitement is in the bond market these days and everyone is shifting their outlooks.
- “Recession” is no longer what the cool kids are saying, and for the most part, the economic forecasts are being revised higher.
- The most recent data releases, particularly related to the labor market, are shifting back toward a more normal balance between goods and services employment, and wages are still growing, but more slowly.
- On the inflation front, CPI came in at 2.969% -- the first “2-handle” since March 2021 – and disinflation seems likely to persist.
- The Federal Reserve meeting in July was uneventful, and the pathway to a soft landing remains Chair Powell’s base case.
- With the most recent push higher in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond probing the 4% yield to maturity mark, a pause or a modest pullback in risk assets at these levels would certainly not surprise us.
- Technical indicators point towards an overbought market while the move higher in yields is creating some investor angst.
Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. The views and opinions are as of August 10, 2023 and may change based on market and other conditions. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary. Although Natixis Investment Managers believes the information provided in this material to be reliable, including that from third party sources, it does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Natixis Advisors, LLC provides advisory services through its division Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Advisory services are generally provided with the assistance of model portfolio providers, some of which are affiliates of Natixis Investment Managers, LLC.
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