Information on Fraud Attempts

We would like to draw your attention to the fact that Natixis Investment Managers Hong Kong Limited and its affiliated companies, like all firms, are regularly targeted by malicious individuals through attempts at fraud, various scams, and extortion attempts, particularly through identity theft, the creation of fake email addresses, offers of fake financial products, cryptocurrencies, etc. For more information, please click on this link.

Subscribe Contact us
Back to role selection

Select your role to continue or go back to the Natixis Investment Managers homepage

Individual

I am based in Hong Kong and I manage my own savings and investments.

Select role

Intermediary

I represent intermediaries and professional advisors in Hong Kong as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made under that ordinance.

Select role

Institutional

I represent institutional investors and professional advisors in Hong Kong as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made under that ordinance.

Select role

Select your local site for products and services by region

Americas

Asia Pacific

Europe

Location not listed?

View investments

Capabilities

Find out more about our investment capabilities

Services

Find out more about the full scope of our solutions offering

Fencer
Harris Associates U.S. Value Equity fund
Uncover undervalued, growing US companies with Harris Associates, which has been focusing on value investing since 1976
Find out more
View fund explorer

Funds

Search for funds, documents, and notifications

eagle
Loomis Sayles U.S. Growth Equity Fund
Aim for new heights with commitment and conviction
Find out more
View latest Insights

Insights by asset class

Gain our perspectives and investment thinking across each asset class

News and insights

Get deep insight and expert views on the forces shaping financial markets

Featured topics

Browse the latest views by topic

Echoes
Echoes
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often echoes. Some echoes fade. Others become signals.
Find out more
About us

Who we are

Find out more about who we are and how we might be able to help

Investor sentiment

Discover the latest insights from the center for investor insight

Contact

Have an enquiry? Find the right person to contact

SG HK Hero Banner Trophy
Awards and recognition
Explore the industry awards and recognition we have received over the years.
Find out more

Fixed income

For securitized credit, Iran war risks are anything but uniform

March 31, 2026 - 5 min
For securitized credit, Iran war risks are anything but uniform

As geopolitical risks stemming from the conflict in the Middle East dominate the market narrative, many investors are assessing the potential spillover effects across asset classes.

For securitized assets, the risks are anything but uniform. The space is highly differentiated, with sensitivities that vary meaningfully by structure, collateral and cash‑flow profile. Below, we examine how heightened geopolitical risk could affect major securitized sub-sectors, highlighting which areas are most vulnerable, and which are more insulated.

EXPOSURE GAUGE Elevated

Commercial Asset-Backed Securities (ABS)

Aircraft ABS backed by leases to airlines could face pressure from higher fuel costs and potentially weaker travel demand. Fuel typically accounts for roughly 25% of airline operating expenses according to the International Air Transport Association, and sustained increases in oil prices can compress margins even when airlines partially hedge fuel exposure. Airlines based in the Middle East, which currently represents roughly 5–10% of lessees across many aircraft ABS pools according to Kroll, may see the most direct demand impacts, although many benefit from implicit or explicit government support and remained solvent even during the severe drop in passenger travel during the COVID-19 pandemic. From a collateral perspective, we believe higher oil prices may actually support demand for newer-generation aircraft that offer greater fuel efficiency. In addition, structural factors such as delays in next-generation aircraft deliveries, continued recovery in global air travel demand, production bottlenecks and higher aircraft conversion costs have helped support aircraft lease rates and residual values. As a result, while airline profitability could face pressure from higher fuel costs, aircraft lease fundamentals remain relatively stable, in our opinion.

Container ABS, backed by shipping container fleets used in global shipping, may also experience indirect effects from the conflict as vessels avoid routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea and reroute shipments. These changes increase transit times and freight costs while also raising war-risk insurance costs for vessels operating near the conflict zone. However, we believe container leasing fundamentals remain strong, and disruption in established trade routes could actually support container shipping and lease rates as ships and cargo must be redirected along longer routes. Container utilization has remained above 95% since the pandemic, and lessors have locked a significant portion of their fleets into long-term fixed-rate leases according to BofAML. In addition, container lessors have been conservative with capital expenditures to avoid creating excess supply, while shipping lines strengthened their balance sheets significantly during the pandemic after generating record profits. We believe these factors suggest that large container lessors should remain resilient, supported by strong lessees, healthy balance sheets and attractive lease yields attached to the fleets.

Though spreads in aircraft and container ABS have widened modestly since the onset of the Middle East conflict, the movement appears largely driven by broader macro risk-off sentiment. Trading volumes in these sectors have been light and market depth relatively thin, suggesting that recent spread widening may not reflect fundamental deterioration in collateral performance.

EXPOSURE GAUGE Moderate

Consumer ABS

We believe the sectors most vulnerable to higher energy prices as a result of the Middle East conflict are those backed by distressed consumers, particularly those with lower incomes. Segments of consumer lending that are most directly exposed include non-prime auto loans, personal consumer loans and student loans. An oil shock raises gasoline, food and heating costs, effectively acting as a tax on households and reducing the ability of lower-income borrowers to service debt obligations. Employment is strong but weakening, while real wage growth remains positive yet slowing. Unexpected and substantial increases in living costs could place pressure on household budgets while accelerating those negative trends through reduced spending demand. Spread widening in consumer ABS sectors has been modest since the onset of the Middle East conflict, though liquidity at current levels is weaker than before the conflict began. While we were already poised for some near-term deterioration in consumer economic health, we do not expect substantial and broad-based consumer distress as employment, real wage growth and balance sheets remain broadly strong amongst prime consumers, positioning them to handle incremental economic stress, in our view.

EXPOSURE GAUGE Low

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS)

Geopolitical uncertainty from an active conflict adds to artificial intelligence (AI) related uncertainty around future commercial property demand. Rising energy costs and a growing probability of persistent $100/barrel oil could sustain inflation pressures and keep the yield curve steep. Higher rates and higher operating costs are meaningful headwinds for a commercial real estate market that has been slow to recover, in our view. At the same time, many firms appear to be moving through rolling waves of “right sizing” or restructuring, amplified by equity valuation pressures, which reinforces weak hiring and softer leasing activity. Ultimately, we believe the duration of the conflict will be key; corporate earnings remain strong and can likely absorb a quarter of stress, particularly if the Middle East conflict deescalates and inflation fears recede.

EXPOSURE GAUGE Low

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS)

US residential real estate is not directly impacted by geopolitical shocks but could be indirectly affected by broader financial market implications. We believe deterioration in the broader macro economy will impact the credit performance of non-agency RMBS. Transmission into the rates market will likely cause changes in prepayment behavior, which would affect the tenor of most non-agency securities.

EXPOSURE GAUGE Low

Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)

CLOs have very low or no direct exposure to loans domiciled in the Middle East, including Israel, based on Loomis Sayles’ analysis. While we do not have a precise way to quantify the proportion of revenue that underlying obligors derive from specific geographies, it is possible that some portfolio companies generate a limited portion of their revenue from Middle Eastern activities. We believe any impact on CLO portfolios from the current Middle East conflict would occur indirectly through higher energy prices, rather than through direct geographic exposure, and that this impact should be manageable. Energy exposure in CLO portfolios is low and generally outside of the top-ten sector concentrations. Much of the energy exposure in US CLOs is domestically focused. Moreover, we believe several energy related borrowers may actually benefit from higher oil prices. Other sectors, including construction & building products and chemicals, plastics, and rubber, could experience some margin pressure from higher raw material and input costs tied to oil prices. Notably, chemical companies have already been under pressure for several months due to broader cyclical and industry specific challenges, and incremental cost pressure could contribute to isolated defaults or restructurings at the margin. Overall, however, we do not expect the current Middle East conflict to have a material impact on the CLO market. Portfolio diversification, limited direct exposure and the relatively modest concentrations in sectors most sensitive to energy prices should help mitigate 

Related insights

View all fixed income insights
Echoes: How to avoid becoming a market dinosaur
Echoes: How to avoid becoming a market dinosaur
Loomis Sayles’ bond market veteran, Lynda Schweitzer, recalls the GFC and Covid to explain why analysts today need a healthy appreciation of game theory and behavioural finance, and why her team’s internal debates are often a microcosm of broader markets.
Echoes: For bond investors, inflation is a disease worse than Covid
Echoes: For bond investors, inflation is a disease worse than Covid
Francois Collet, PM and CIO at DNCA, reveals what it was like managing a bond portfolio through the height of the pandemic shutdowns, and how investors in fixed income should think about risk and the global macroeconomic environment in an era of unthinkable shocks.
Emerging Markets are entering a Golden Era
Emerging Markets are entering a Golden Era
Many core EM economies are in the early innings of a multi-year virtuous economic cycle that should accelerate investor demand for EM debt, argues Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets debt team.

Sources: Loomis Sayles, International Air Transport Association, BofAML, Kroll

The reference to specific securities, sectors, or markets within this material does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation or an offer to buy or to sell any security, or an offer of services.

Additional Notes

This material has been provided for information purposes only to investment service providers or other Professional Clients, Qualified or Institutional Investors and, when required by local regulation, only at their written request. This material must not be used with Retail Investors.

In the E.U.: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers International or one of its Branch offices listed below. Natixis Investment Managers International is a portfolio management company authorized by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (French Financial Markets Authority - AMF) under no. GP 90-009, and a simplified joint-stock company (société par actions simplifiée - SAS) registered in the Paris Trade and Companies Register under no. 329 450 738, Registered office: 43 avenue Pierre Mendès France, 75013 Paris. Germany: Natixis Investment Managers International, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland (Registration number: HRB 129507). Registered office: Senckenberganlage 21, 60325 Frankfurt am Main. Italy: Natixis Investment Managers International Succursale Italiana (Registration number: MI-2637562). Registered office: Via Adalberto Catena, 4, 20121 Milan, Italy. Netherlands: Natixis Investment Managers International, Dutch Branch (Registration number: 000050438298), Registered office: Amsterdam WTC, Zuidplein 36, WTC, Tower 1, 4th Floor, 1077XV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Spain: Natixis Investment Managers International S.A., Sucursal en España (Registration number: NIF W0232616C), Registered office: Serrano n°90, 6th Floor, 28006  Madrid, Spain. Luxembourg: Natixis Investment Managers International, Luxembourg Branch (Registration number: B283713), Registered office: 2, rue Jean Monnet, L-2180 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. Belgium: Natixis Investment Managers International, Belgian Branch (Registration number: 1006.931.462), Gare Maritime, Rue Picard 7, Bte 100, 1000 Bruxelles, Belgium.

In Switzerland: Provided for information purposes only by Natixis Investment Managers, Switzerland Sàrl (Registration number: CHE-114.271.882), Rue du Vieux Collège 10, 1204 Geneva, Switzerland or its representative office in Zurich, Schweizergasse 6, 8001 Zürich.

In the British Isles: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers UK Limited which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA firm reference no. 190258) - registered office: Natixis Investment Managers UK Limited, Level 4, Cannon Bridge House, 25 Dowgate Hill, London, EC4R 2YA. When permitted, the distribution of this material is intended to be made to persons as described as follows: in the United Kingdom: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at investment professionals and professional investors only; in Ireland: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at professional investors only; in

Guernsey: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at only financial services providers which hold a license from the Guernsey Financial Services Commission; in Jersey: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at professional investors only; in the Isle of Man: this material is intended to be communicated to and/or directed at only financial services providers which hold a license from the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority or insurers authorised under section 8 of the Insurance Act 2008.

In the DIFC: Provided in and from the DIFC financial district by Natixis Investment Managers Middle East (DIFC Branch) which is regulated by the DFSA. Related financial products or services are only available to persons who have sufficient financial experience and understanding to participate in financial markets within the DIFC, and qualify as Professional Clients or Market Counterparties as defined by the DFSA. No other Person should act upon this material.  Registered office: Unit  L10-02, Level 10 ,ICD Brookfield Place, DIFC, PO Box 506752, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

In Japan: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Japan Co., Ltd. Registration No.: Director-General of the Kanto Local Financial Bureau (kinsho) No.425. Content of Business: The Company conducts investment management business, investment advisory and agency business and Type II Financial Instruments Business as a Financial Instruments Business Operator.

In Taiwan: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Securities Investment Consulting (Taipei) Co., Ltd., a Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise regulated by the Financial Supervisory Commission of the R.O.C. Registered address: 34F., No. 68, Sec. 5, Zhongxiao East Road, Xinyi Dist., Taipei City 11065, Taiwan (R.O.C.), license number 2020 FSC SICE No. 025, Tel. +886 2 8789 2788.

In Singapore: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Singapore Limited (NIM Singapore) having office at 5 Shenton Way, #22-05/06, UIC Building, Singapore 068808 (Company Registration No. 199801044D) to distributors and qualified investors for information purpose only. NIM Singapore is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under a Capital Markets Services Licence to conduct fund management activities and is an exempt financial adviser. Mirova Division (Business Name Registration No.: 53431077W) and Ostrum Division (Business Name Registration No.: 53463468X) are part of NIM Singapore and are not separate legal entities. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Hong Kong Limited to professional investors for information purpose only.

In Australia: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Australia Pty Limited (ABN 60 088 786 289) (AFSL No. 246830) and is intended for the general information of financial advisers and wholesale clients only.

In New Zealand: This document is intended for the general information of New Zealand wholesale investors only and does not constitute financial advice. This is not a regulated offer for the purposes of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (FMCA) and is only available to New Zealand investors who have certified that they meet the requirements in the FMCA for wholesale investors. Natixis Investment Managers Australia Pty Limited is not a registered financial service provider in New Zealand.

In Korea: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers Korea Limited (Registered with Financial Services Commission for General Private Collective Investment Business) to distributors and qualified investors for information purpose only.

In Colombia: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers International Oficina de Representación (Colombia) to professional clients for informational purposes only as permitted under Decree 2555 of 2010. Any products, services or investments referred to herein are rendered exclusively outside of Colombia. This material does not constitute a public offering in Colombia and  is addressed to less than 100 specifically identified investors.

In Latin America: Provided by Natixis Investment Managers International.

In Chile: Esta oferta privada se inicia el día de la fecha de la presente comunicación. La presente oferta se acoge a la Norma de Carácter General N° 336 de la Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros de Chile. La presente oferta versa sobre valores no inscritos en el Registro de Valores o en el Registro de Valores Extranjeros que lleva la Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros, por lo que los valores sobre los cuales ésta versa, no están sujetos a su fiscalización. Que por tratarse de valores no inscritos, no existe la obligación por parte del emisor de entregar en Chile información pública respecto de estos valores. Estos valores no podrán ser objeto de oferta pública mientras no sean inscritos en el Registro de Valores correspondiente.

In Mexico: Provided by Natixis IM Mexico, S. de R.L. de C.V., which is not a regulated financial entity, securities intermediary, or an investment manager in terms of the Mexican Securities Market Law (Ley del Mercado de Valores) and is not registered with the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) or any other Mexican authority. Any products, services or investments referred to herein that require authorization or license are rendered exclusively outside of Mexico. While shares of certain ETFs may be listed in the Sistema Internacional de Cotizaciones (SIC), such listing does not represent a public offering of securities in Mexico, and therefore the accuracy of this information has not been confirmed by the CNBV. Natixis Investment Managers is an entity organized under the laws of France and is not authorized by or registered with the CNBV or any other Mexican authority. Any reference contained herein to “Investment Managers” is made to Natixis Investment Managers and/or any of its investment management subsidiaries, which are also not authorized by or registered with the CNBV or any other Mexican authority.

In Uruguay: Provided by Natixis IM Uruguay S.A. Office: San Lucar 1491, Montevideo, Uruguay, CP 11500. The sale or offer of any units of a fund qualifies as a private placement pursuant to section 2 of Uruguayan law 18,627.

In Brazil: Provided to a specific identified investment professional for information purposes only by Natixis Investment Managers International. This communication cannot be distributed other than to the identified addressee. Further, this communication should not be construed as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. Natixis Investment Managers International is a portfolio management company authorized by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (French Financial Markets Authority - AMF) under no. GP 90-009, and a simplified joint-stock company (société par actions simplifiée - SAS) registered in the Paris Trade and Companies Register under no. 329 450 738. Registered office: 43 avenue Pierre Mendès France, 75013 Paris.

The above referenced entities are business development units of Natixis Investment Managers, the holding company of a diverse line-up of specialised investment management and distribution entities worldwide. The investment management subsidiaries of Natixis Investment Managers conduct any regulated activities only in and from the jurisdictions in which they are licensed or authorized. Their services and the products they manage are not available to all investors in all jurisdictions.

Although Natixis Investment Managers believes the information provided in this material to be reliable, including that from third party sources, it does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information.

The provision of this material and/or reference to specific securities, sectors, or markets within this material does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation or an offer to buy or to sell any security, or an offer of any regulated financial activity. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any investment carefully before investing. The analyses, opinions, and certain of the investment themes and processes referenced herein represent the views of the individual(s) as of the date indicated. These, as well as the portfolio holdings and characteristics shown, are subject to change and cannot be construed as having any contractual value. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as may be forecasted in this material. The analyses and opinions expressed by external third parties are independent and does not necessarily reflect those of Natixis Investment Managers. Any past performance information presented is not indicative of future performance.

This material may not be distributed, published, or reproduced, in whole or in part.

All amounts shown are expressed in USD unless otherwise indicated.

DR-78229