Annual Market Review & Outlook – Listed Assets - 2024: Mirova

作者: Hervé Guez

Mirova presents its outlook for listed assets and the economy in 2024. His central scenario for 2024 is that of a successful soft landing.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • A soft landing for the economy without recession. Mirova believes annualised global growth should slow over the next few quarters, heading towards 2.5% for 2024 as a whole, with 1.5% in the United States, 0.5% in Europe, where the start of the year will be sluggish, and 4.5% to 5% in China.
  • Stabilisation of inflation between 2% and 2.5%. Such a scenario calls for wage disinflation without job losses in order to maintain consumer confidence. The labour market will therefore play a key role in Mirova’s expectations.
  • Central Banks cutting rates in the spring. Monetary easing should also help to reduce refinancing risk for companies over the next two years.
  • Stabilisation of productivity gains with resilient investment and consumption levels in the United States and, to a lower extent, in Europe. Productivity gains rose sharply in 2023 in the United States, even reaching an astonishing 5% in the third quarter2, and are expected to stabilise at around 2% annualised
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