Macro views

Investment outlook: Loomis Sayles

July 09, 2025 - 10 min

While the global growth backdrop is somewhat cloudy, the risk of global trade seizing up and causing widespread recession appears greatly diminished, according to Loomis, Sayles & Company’s Global Macro Strategist, Credit, Craig Burelle. That said, an elevated effective tariff rate, around 15%, seems likely. Key macroeconomic drivers, along with sector outlooks, are analyzed.

Highlights

Macro drivers: Given the decent growth backdrop, aggressive central bank easing appears unlikely, and Loomis Sayles anticipates 25-basis-point cuts in October and December.
Corporate credit: Based on bottom-up fundamental analysis, Loomis Sayles’ Credit Research Team suggests 87% of Bloomberg US Aggregate Index industries are in the expansion phase of the credit cycle.
Global equities: The macro backdrop may be fraught with headline risk, but history suggests earnings growth can propel equities higher.
Currencies: Improved global growth prospects in developed and emerging markets have been attracting capital, a trend that could last for several quarters or longer.

Loomis Sayles Investment Outlook

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This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions.

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