Portfolio construction

US portfolio trends: Positioning after a risk-driven year

March 03, 2026 - 3 min

Mark J. Cintolo, CFA, CAIA

Senior Vice President – Natixis Investment Managers Solutions

Matthew Hunyadi, CFA

Associate Portfolio Consultant – Natixis Investment Managers Solutions

Portfolio positioning entering 2026 reflects a transition from a year in which risk taking was rewarded with a more balanced and benchmark-aware approach. Strong outcomes in 2025 were supported by higher equity exposure, increased diversification beyond U.S. markets, and participation in structurally important themes, all of which contributed to meaningful differences in performance across portfolios. As market leadership evolved over the year, these positioning choices played a central role in shaping results among peers.

Our moderate risk peer group returned 14.3% in 2025, outperforming a domestic 60/40 portfolio (13.7%) but underperforming a global 60/40 portfolio (17.1%). The first-quartile cohort benefited from higher equity allocations centered in U.S. large-cap growth, allocations to non-U.S. equity, a longer duration fixed-income sleeve, and dwindling positions in liquid alternatives.

Allocations to traditional asset categories in equity and fixed income rose in 2025 as investors sourced allocations from cash, liquid alternatives, and allocation funds. Advisors appear to have realized profits on equities in Q4 after a strong rebound from the lows in early April.

Equity-style exposure is more balanced than it was at the beginning of the year, highlighting a preference to be closer to benchmark target weights. This has reversed from an extreme value tilt in Q4 2022.

Tilts toward key megatrends impacted returns in 2025. Exposure to the tariff policy high-protection theme added to returns through Liberation Day, but since then, the AI theme has been more impactful. Our first-order basket represents key mega-cap growth industries and inputs to building up data centers, whereas our second-order basket represents disproportionate beneficiaries of AI technology incorporated into their business models.

Fixed-income sleeves in 2025 featured a more defensive posture, highlighting investors’ caution toward tighter credit spreads. Despite credit spreads grinding tighter, yields across most fixed-income categories remain attractive. With a rangebound rates environment, investors using more flexible strategies may be better suited to address a bifurcated fixed-income landscape in 2026, a trend that we’ve seen increasingly take place over the past several quarters.

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This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Any opinions or forecasts contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the author only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers or any of its affiliates. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results will be different.

Data and analysis do not represent the actual or expected future performance of any investment product. We believe the information, including that obtained from outside resources, to be correct, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. The information is subject to change at any time without notice. The data contained herein is the result of analysis conducted by Natixis Investment Managers Solutions’ consulting team on model portfolios submitted by Investment Professionals.

Natixis Investment Managers Solutions collects portfolio data and aggregates that data in accordance with the peer group portfolio category that is assigned to an individual portfolio by the Investment Professionals. At such time that a Professional requests a report, the Professional will categorize the portfolios as a portfolio belonging to one of the following categories: Aggressive, Moderately Aggressive, Moderate, Moderately Conservative, or Conservative.

The categorization of individual portfolios is not determined by Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, as its role is solely as an aggregator of the pre-risk attributes of the Moderate Peer Group and will change over time due to movements in the capital markets.

Portfolio allocations provided to Natixis Investment Managers Solutions are static in nature, and subsequent changes in a Professional’s portfolio allocations may not be reflected in the current Moderate Peer Group data. Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, international and emerging markets. Additionally, alternative investments, including managed futures, can involve a higher degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided.

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