Contact us Account access
Your Dashboard
Back to role selection

Select your role to continue or return to the Natixis Investment Managers homepage

Financial professional

I am a wealth manager or financial advisor managing investments on behalf of my clients.

Select role

Institutional investor

I represent institutions searching for investment capabilities and solutions.

Select role

Individual investor

I manage my own investments.

Select role

Select your local site for products and services by region

Americas

Asia Pacific

Europe

Location not listed?

Products

Products

Investment capabilities​

Solutions

Solutions

From our experts

Insights

Insights

In focus

Investor sentiment

Resources

Fund resources

Education

About

Who we are​

Press

Careers

Contact us

Tariff effects on inflation set to fade

October 14, 2026

Tariffs have been a meaningful contributor to inflation over the past year, but that pressure may begin to ease in the months ahead. The bulk of tariff-related price increases have already worked their way through the economy, leaving a smaller contribution that should gradually fade from year-over-year inflation readings, according to St. Louis Fed research.

"But the story here is that you're still running at about 40 basis points contribution to excess inflation coming from tariffs,” says Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. “And assuming that we stay at a status quo, that's 40 basis points of that year-over-year print that's going to roll off over the next 12 months here."

Tariff contributions to excess core PCE (6/30/25-6/30/26)
Bar and line chart of excess inflation Source: Portfolio Analysis & Consulting. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Excess inflation defined as difference between Core PCE and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) 2% target.
  • Tariff pass-through peaked at roughly 60 basis points in February before declining to about 40 basis points by midyear.

  • Tariffs accounted for roughly half of the excess inflation above the Federal Reserve's target earlier this year.

  • Underlying inflation measures have continued to trend lower, suggesting some of today's price pressures may prove temporary.

Core PCE is a measure of U.S. inflation that strips out food and energy prices to reveal the underlying trend in what consumers pay for everything else.

FOMC is The Federal Reserve committee responsible for setting U.S. monetary policy and guiding interest-rate decisions.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

NIM-10092026-ckioi87f