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Has the Fed reached peak hawkishness?

August 12, 2026

While investors remain focused on rising oil prices and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, real-time inflation data may be telling a different story. Truflation, which tracks the prices of more than 15 million goods and services, suggests that core inflation pressures are drifting lower again after stabilizing for much of the past two years. The data points to a potential disconnect between increasingly hawkish policy expectations and underlying inflation trends. “The utility isn’t in the level but rather the direction of travel,” notes Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

  • Truflation has historically provided an early signal of turning points in inflation trends ahead of official government measures.

  • The Core PCE Comparison Index indicates that core price pressures appear to be moving lower once again after two years of relative stability.

  • If official inflation data begins to reflect the same disinflationary trend, markets may need to scale back expectations for additional monetary tightening.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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