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Fiscal tailwinds fade as growth headwinds build

September 09, 2026

Consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient this year despite firmer inflation and elevated gas prices, supported in part by a modest fiscal impulse from tax policy changes. That support is now fading, however, as the stimulative effects of the Big Beautiful Bill move into the rearview mirror and fiscal policy shifts from a tailwind to a headwind for growth. With consumption already likely to soften amid tepid real income growth, additional fiscal drag could create further pressure on spending in the coming quarters. “Fiscal boost is giving way to fiscal drag, adding another headwind to consumption in the coming quarters and keeping the economy on track for ho-hum growth for the foreseeable future,” says Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

  • Spending cuts for lower-income households will likely weigh further on the marginal rate of growth in consumer spending.

  • AI CapEx budgets are projected to exceed $1 trillion in 2027, helping support investment activity even as other growth drivers soften.

  • While AI spending should remain robust, projected growth of 35% would mark a significant slowdown from the pace seen in 2025 and 2026.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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