As Election Day approaches, history favors investors
October 06, 2026
Election years often bring heightened uncertainty, and that uncertainty can weigh on markets. But looking across midterm election years since 1974, a different pattern emerges: stocks have historically begun to recover before Election Day and continued to advance in the months that follow. “You can see we roughly bottom about three weeks before midterms. And then the market tends to just run into the end of the year,” says Jack Janasiewicz, CFA®, Portfolio Manager and Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.
Source: Portfolio Analysis & Consulting, Bloomberg.
Performance data shown is past performance and is no guarantee of future results.
- The median path for the S&P 500® shows weakness during much of the year before improving as the election approaches.
- Rather than peaking after Election Day, the historical pattern shows gains extending through year-end and into the first quarter of the following year.
- While every election cycle is different, market performance has often improved once investors have greater visibility into the policy and political landscape.
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This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.
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