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AI is fueling the economy's growth engine

October 20, 2026

AI capital spending has become a key source of US economic growth. Broadly defined AI capital expenditures, including information processing equipment, software and research and development, are growing at roughly 13% year over year, compared with about 1.5% for the rest of real domestic final demand, notes Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. “You have 8% of the economy that's growing gangbusters at 13%, while the rest of the economy is just muddling along at a fairly low pace,” says Melson. “Not huge downside risk, but just not doing a whole lot in terms of a positive growth impulse.”

Real final private domestic sales vs AI CapEx (3/31/21-6/30/26)
Capex and sales growth rate line chart Source: Portfolio Analysis & Consulting. Bloomberg. AI Capex represents artificial intelligence capital expenditures. R&D represents research and development.
  • The bulk of today's economic growth impulse is coming from AI-related investment rather than broader economic activity.

  • Consumer spending remains the largest driver of economic activity, even as AI becomes an increasingly important source of growth.

  • The economy has remained resilient through higher energy prices and tighter monetary policy.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.