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AI investment keeps growth afloat, but momentum may slow

October 28, 2026

Economic growth has remained steady, but several traditional drivers, including housing, manufacturing and government spending, appear unlikely to provide a meaningful lift heading into 2027. That leaves artificial intelligence (AI) investment playing an outsized role in supporting activity as other parts of the economy remain subdued. “AI CapEx will continue to provide powerful support for the economy, but at the margin it’s beginning to shift to a robust floor under activity as opposed to the lone source of a growth impulse,” says Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

  • AI infrastructure investment has added nearly 90 basis points to real GDP growth over the past six quarters.

  • Consensus estimates put 2027 hyperscaler capital expenditures above $1 trillion, up from approximately $800 billion in 2026.

  • After surging nearly 90% in 2026, capital expenditure growth is projected to moderate to about 37%, contributing roughly 40 basis points to real GDP growth.

An AI capital expenditure (CapEx) cycle refers to a sustained surge in corporate spending to build the infrastructure required for artificial intelligence—such as AI data centers, advanced chips, networking equipment, energy capacity, and AI talent.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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