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Jack Janasiewicz, CFA®

Portfolio Manager and Lead Portfolio Strategist
Natixis Investment Managers Solutions

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  • February 13, 2024

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Jack Janasiewicz discusses the nuances of inflation, the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year, and the Fed’s need for “greater confidence” to appease the inflation hawks before it cuts rates.
  • One month into 2024 and it seems like Groundhog Day all over again, at least with stocks. US equities led the pack with large cap tech continuing to drive returns.
  • By comparison, the bond market was a bit lackluster with yields ending the month roughly where they started.
  • Growth and inflation were the key themes and inflation data continues to improve – particularly core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.
  • As expected, the Fed continued to hold rates steady at 5.5% in January, but there were a few notable takeaways from Fed Chair Jay Powell’s statement.
  • Powell suggested that the committee is still waiting for “greater confidence” that inflation is moving sustainably toward its 2% target before easing rates.
  • While Powell may be ready to ease, he needs the consensus of the committee – including the inflation hawks – to reach a unanimous decision and some voters are not quite there yet.
  • But rate cuts are now a matter of “when”, not “if” – and cuts will come not because growth is cratering, but because inflation is returning to target.

Recent Episodes

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What Really Matters in 2024

Portfolio manager and strategist Jack Janasiewicz explains why growth, labor trends and risk appetite are what matters most to the markets this year.

January 10, 2024 Jack Janasiewicz
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Rate Cuts on the Horizon?

The latest economic data prints are paving the way for interest rate cuts in 2024 according to portfolio manager and strategist Jack Janasiewicz.

December 15, 2023 Jack Janasiewicz
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Straight Talk on the Treasury Market

Who’s buying? Who’s selling? What about the deficit? Portfolio Manager Jack Janasiewicz discusses the dynamics and mechanics roiling the US Treasury market.

November 17, 2023 Jack Janasiewicz
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Cruel September

Portfolio Manager Jack Janasiewicz examines seasonality patterns and the rise in bond yields, oil, and the dollar that weighed on risk assets in September.

October 13, 2023 Jack Janasiewicz
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Bullwhips and the Extrapolation Effect

Portfolio Manager Jack Janasiewicz explains why extrapolating current market trends into the future based on the bullwhip effect may be misguided.

September 15, 2023 Jack Janasiewicz
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Recession Outlook: Going, Going, Gone

Portfolio Manager Jack Janasiewicz discusses the shifting recession narrative, labor and inflation trends, and the Fed’s pathway to a soft landing.

August 18, 2023 Jack Janasiewicz
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Market Catalysts: Made in the USA

Portfolio Manager Jack Janasiewicz discusses potential market tailwinds, FOMO, a US capital spending boom, and prospects for a strong second half.

July 17, 2023 Jack Janasiewicz

Related Insights

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. The views and opinions are as of February 8, 2024 and may change based on market and other conditions. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary. Although Natixis Investment Managers believes the information provided in this material to be reliable, including that from third party sources, it does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

Natixis Advisors, LLC provides advisory services through its division Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Advisory services are generally provided with the assistance of model portfolio providers, some of which are affiliates of Natixis Investment Managers, LLC.

Natixis Distribution, LLC is a limited purpose broker-dealer and the distributor of various registered investment companies for which advisory services are provided by affiliates of Natixis Investment Managers, LLC. Natixis Investment Managers does not provide tax or legal advice. Please consult with a tax or legal professional prior to making any investment decisions.

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