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Portfolio construction

2024 Investment idea: Quality/growth

December 21, 2023 - 10 min read

Portfolio consultants Mark Cintolo and Sean Kaukas apply the Investment Committee’s Cyclicality vs. Inflation framework to equity allocations for 2024.

  • Much of the volatility over the past few years can really be boiled down to the market repricing inflation and growth, so we built a framework to help clients align their portfolios with their outlook on both of these factors.
  • In 2023 we’ve seen an environment where inflation has eased dramatically, falling from levels that we hadn't seen in decades – and now it’s within striking distance of the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
  • Meanwhile, economic growth has proven much more resilient than many initially expected.
  • Looking ahead, we expect inflation and the labor market to continue normalizing, but we appreciate the potential for a slowing growth environment.
  • Based on our historical framework, we’ve seen the quality factor outperform in slowing growth environments, along with growth strategies – particularly US large cap growth.
  • We also see two scenarios that would warrant a cut in interest rates by the Fed next year – and it’s important to understand both of them when making portfolio allocations.

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All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed-income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions.