Why AI spend isn’t really the sole growth driver
November 05, 2025
In 2025, artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure (capex), which represents just 6% of gross domestic product (GDP), appears to be contributing as much to US growth as consumption, which is nearly 70% of the economy.* However, the vast majority of those AI investment dollars are spent on imported goods. “Netting out imports, the impulse to growth from domestic investment in information processing equipment and software is more muted. The economy is not completely at the mercy of the success of the AI buildout,” said Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.
- The impact of AI capex on real GDP** growth, net of imports, is modest – adding just 25 basis points, on average, through the first half of 2025.*
- Given that nearly all the chips and semiconductors being purchased for the AI buildout are produced abroad, imports of those chips mechanically drag on US GDP growth, according to Melson.
- Of course, there are indirect effects of AI spend on economic activity. Therefore, it’s impossible to fully portray what the economy would look like in the absence of the AI boom.
*Source: Portfolio Analysis & Consulting, Ernie Tedeschi. QoQ SAAR represents quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized rate.
**Real GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in an economy adjusted for inflation (price changes), while nominal GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in an economy at current market prices.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.
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