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When will FOMC members agree to cut rates?

June 25, 2025

Federal Reserve Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman appear to be leading the charge for more interest rate cuts as soon as July. But some Fed colleagues may be looking past the risks they see brewing under headline data regarding softer labor and inflation (Core Personal Consumption Expenditures1) – and focusing on the potential impact of higher tariffs. It may take a few months longer for them to “wait and see” and agree to cut get on the same page.
 

 Diffusion indices of FOMC participant risk weightings (10/31/07 - 6/30/25)*
Diffusion Indices of FMOC Participant Risk Weightings (10/31/07 -6/30/25) * Source: Bloomberg
  • Despite a slow but steady grind higher for unemployment, three Federal Open Meeting Committee (FOMC) members no longer view risks to the unemployment rate as weighted to the upside.*
  • Fed Governor Bowman said Monday (June 23) the time to cut interest rates is getting nearer as risks to the job market may be on the rise. 
  • The FOMC left the key interest rate range at 4.25% and 4.5% in June.
  • The FOMC next meets July 29-30. 

1 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - an inflation measure that tracks the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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