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What gold and oil are signaling about rates

April 15, 2026

Recent market action is showing subtle signs that investors may be reassessing the path of rates beneath the surface. Gold rallied sharply even as oil prices surged, a relationship that has turned negative since the start of the Iran conflict and runs counter to traditional inflation-driven dynamics. “One day does not make a trend,” says Jack Janasiewicz, CFA, Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager and Lead Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Still, the combination of rising gold prices, a steepening Treasury curve, and falling odds of a Fed hike raises the question of whether markets are beginning to price in slower growth and lower rates.

 

Gold vs Oil (12/31/25 - 4/6/46)
gold vs oil line graph Source: Bloomberg
  • Gold rallied despite higher oil prices, breaking a long-standing positive correlation. 
  • The Treasury curve steepened as the 2-year yield fell faster than the 10-year, signaling shifting rate expectations. 
  • Falling odds of a Fed hike coincided with strength in interest-rate-sensitive equities and defensives.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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