Contact us Account access
Back to role selection

Select your role to continue or return to the Natixis Investment Managers homepage

Financial professional

I am a wealth manager or financial advisor managing investments on behalf of my clients.

Select role

Institutional investor

I represent institutions searching for investment capabilities and solutions.

Select role

Individual investor

I manage my own investments.

Select role

Select your local site for products and services by region

Americas

Asia Pacific

Europe

Location not listed?

Products

Products

Investment capabilities​

Solutions

Solutions

From our experts

Insights

Insights

In focus

Investor sentiment

Resources

Fund resources

Education

About

Who we are​

Press

Careers

Contact us

Wages have stalled. What does it signal for the labor market?

June 03, 2026

The rising share of workers experiencing zero wage growth continues to point to a labor market that is stabilizing, not strengthening. “Holding wages steady is among the first levers employers can pull when managing their workforce,” says Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. This dynamic has historically tracked closely with the direction of unemployment, reinforcing the idea that underlying slack can build even without a clear deterioration in headline data. While the series has steadied recently, the lack of a decisive rollover suggests wage momentum remains subdued and the broader labor backdrop still lacks conviction. 

 

Percent of workers with zero wage growth vs U-3 (12/31/99 — 4/30/26)
percent-of-workers-with-zero-wage-growth-vs-u-3-line-graph Source: Bloomberg
  • Wage stagnation can act as an early signal of weakening income growth before layoffs materialize
  • A stable but soft wage backdrop supports the case for contained inflation pressures
  • If unemployment begins to rise, this series suggests wage conditions could deteriorate quickly rather than gradually

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

NIM-06012026-i8tvlpny