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US growth data continues to be noisy for 1H 2025

August 13, 2025

Real gross domestic product (GDP) posted a Q2 upside surprise, printing 3% growth – ahead of an expected 2.6%.* But while it bounced back from a negative Q1 print, Q2’s real GDP may not be as strong as it appears due to tariff-driven distortions. “The recovery was almost entirely a function of the largest contribution on record from net exports following the largest drag from net exports in Q1. There’s no signal in those swings. It’s all noise,” says Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Real GDP grew just 1.2% annualized, well below the 2.6% two-quarter average of 2024.


Contributions to GDP growth (Q1 2022 to Q2 2025)
Contributions to GDP growth Q1 2022-Q2 2025 *Source: Bloomberg.
  • Imports were the big driver of the upside surprise as net exports contributed 5% to real GDP growth, thanks to a 30% collapse in imports after Q1 front-running of tariffs and a 5% decline in exports.*
  • Consumer spending, income growth, and non-AI capex slowed, all posing downside risks to the growth outlook.*
  • AI investment was a bright spot, contributing almost 1% to real GDP in 1H.*
  • Real growth is now well below the Federal Reserve’s estimate of potential growth.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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