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US dollar dominance called into question

April 16, 2025

Amid tariff chaos, the US dollar sunk to a three-year low at 99.36 against a basket of currencies on April 11.1 Since “Liberation Day” it has fallen more than 4%.1 Jack Janasiewicz, Portfolio Manager, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, sees this reaction as a bit worrisome. “Sure some of the weakness is unwinding of trades and repatriation of positions in US dollar denominated assets. But the bigger worry – are investors giving up on the decades-long US preference and now re-pricing in a new political risk premium?”

 
Currency return vs. US dollar

4/2/2025 to 4/11/2025

Job growth by sector chart Source: Bloomberg
  • Looking at the foreign currency returns vs. the US dollar, the greenback was weaker against almost all of the major trading pairs from 4/2 to 4/11.1 
  • The Swiss Franc, traditionally considered by investors as a “safe haven” asset, rose significantly from 4/2 to 4/11. So did the euro. 1 
  • Since the end of WWII, the dollar has been the world’s dominant reserve currency. Could its status be under threat?

1 Source: Bloomberg, as of 4/11/2025.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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