The US unemployment rate may have declined from 4.2% to 4.1% in June, but there are cooling trends underway to consider. For example, private sector payrolls were notably soft in June, rising just 74,000, well below the 100,000 consensus and almost half the pace of the prior month.* Also, the majority of employment growth is contained to non-cyclical health and education services.
July 16, 2025