The US unemployment rate may have declined from 4.2% to 4.1% in June, but there are cooling trends underway to consider. For example, private sector payrolls were notably soft in June, rising just 74,000, well below the 100,000 consensus and almost half the pace of the prior month.* Also, the majority of employment growth is contained to non-cyclical health and education services.
- Employment across 250 industries ticked back below 50, as more industries shed jobs than those that grew employment.*
- Cyclical employment, including construction, manufacturing, and trucking, continues to stall, with the 3-month average sitting at just 1000.*
- Within the private payroll figure of 74,000, 51,000 were health and education services.*
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