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Tax refund data points to a softer fiscal impact

April 08, 2026

Early tax refund data is undermining expectations that fiscal policy would meaningfully support growth in 2026. While the year began with optimism around a reaccelerating economy driven in part by the One Big, Beautiful Bill*, refunds are running only modestly ahead of last year, suggesting the fiscal impulse may disappoint. “So far, the refund season has been underwhelming to say the least,” says Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Either way the conflict in Iran goes, the consensus still appears overly sanguine on the growth outlook.

  • Refunds are only $14B ahead of last year through early March, according to U.S. Treasury data. 
  • Even if fully spent, incremental refunds add just 7 basis points to consumer spending. 
  • Tax relief is skewed toward higher-income households, limiting near-term consumption impact.

* The Big Beautiful Bill (P.L. 119‑21) is a comprehensive U.S. budget reconciliation law combining tax cuts, spending reforms, and policy changes enacted in 2025.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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