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Tariff-induced inflation now showing in data

July 23, 2025

Peeling back the layers of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) print – which rose slightly from 2.4% to 2.7% for the 12 months – tells us two things about inflation: Tariffs are starting to show through in core goods price increases, but the broader disinflationary process in the US remains alive and well. Delving into the most tariff-sensitive goods – consumer electronics, furniture, appliances, toys, apparel, and sporting goods – displays a deviation from this deflationary trend of the prior two years since January.*


Tariff-sensitive consumer goods price index (1/31/23 to 6/30/25)
Tariff Sensitive Consumer Goods (1/31/23-6/30/25) * Source: Bloomberg

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

  • Household furnishings saw large and broad price gains as the category rose 0.978%.*
  • Appliance prices rose almost 26% annualized in June, above any print from the Covid era or President Trump’s first-term tariffs.* 
  • Toy prices also spiked nearly 25% annualized, second only to the April 2021 print.*
  • While June was the first month of broad and meaningful increases in core goods prices, the most tariff-sensitive goods have been showing tariff effects for a few months now.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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