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Software and Bitcoin – Cue the SaaSpocalypse

February 18, 2026

Software and Bitcoin have each faced sharp, momentum‑driven reversals in recent trading as crowded positions unwound almost simultaneously. AI‑related pressures also appeared to intensify as Google’s Gemini recently gained ground and Anthropic’s Claude Code added to mounting fears that low‑cost AI tools may threaten traditional software‑as‑a‑service (SaaS) models. “The fear is that what had once been viewed as an asset-light ATM in SaaS is facing an existential threat in the form of low‑cost alternatives from AI,” says Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. The resulting spillover into business development companies (BDCs) and private‑equity names underscores the accelerating unwind – Cue the SaaSpocalypse.


S&P Expanded Technology Software Index vs. Bitcoin (2/6/23–2/6/26)
S&P Expanded Technology Software Index vs. Bit Coin Chart (2/6/23 – 2/6/26) Source: Bloomberg
  • AI‑driven disruption concerns extend beyond software into BDCs and private‑equity names tied to SaaS exposure.
  • Bitcoin’s roughly one‑third drawdown, through February 6, 2026, highlights how quickly parabolic momentum reverses once positioning becomes stretched.
  • Despite these reversals, market breadth has continued to improve as investors rotate out of crowded leaders.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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