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Is the growth rebound more fiction than reality?

February 25, 2026

Consensus growth expectations are once again pushing back above trend, echoing the optimism that defined much of 2025. After a sharp downgrade following Liberation Day, forecasts for 2026 real gross domestic product (GDP) have rebounded as confidence builds around fiscal stimulus, a stabilizing labor market, and the lagged effects of prior rate cuts, even as evidence of a meaningful labor market reacceleration remains limited.

“We’re by no means growth bears, but given the optimism in the current prevailing narrative, there’s scope for markets to be forced to reassess the growth outlook should that expected boost fail to materialize in the next few months, opening the doors to a reversal of the sharp cyclical rotation we’ve seen in markets to start the year,” said Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

For illustrative purposes only

  • Consensus real GDP growth for full-year 2026 stands at 2.4%, with many forecast calling for growth closer to 3%.
  • Growth estimates moved back above trend during outlook season, reversing much of the earlier post-Liberation Day downgrade.
  • The current growth narrative is increasingly reliant on fiscal stimulus assumptions and expectations for labor market stabilization, despite limited confirming evidence.

A bear is a trader or investor who consistently believes the market or a particular stock is headed downwards.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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