Is supercore inflation finally cooling?
February 04, 2026
With higher goods prices and strong nominal wage growth no longer pushing inflation upward as of January, the spotlight shifts to supercore services (core services ex housing)*, where underlying price pressures are finally beginning to ease. That improvement is being reinforced by a moderation in PCE food inflation, as steadier food away from home costs help signal broader cooling across service categories. “With key structural inflation forces breaking lower, the backdrop for 2026 is turning materially brighter,” says Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.
- Energy related inflation risks remain contained, with crude prices trending lower and wholesale gasoline continuing to ease, says Melson.
- Cooling wage growth, moderating rents, and softer food prices collectively reinforce the broader disinflationary backdrop.
- Food away from home trends, often a reliable proxy for underlying service inflation, are signaling broader improvement across core service categories, supporting the move lower in supercore.
As of publishing, data is only available through November 2025
* Supercore services measure price changes in labor intensive service sectors (such as healthcare, transportation, education, insurance, and repairs) while excluding volatile food, energy, and housing costs, providing a clearer gauge of underlying, labor driven inflation pressures.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.
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