Is AI really driving job losses?
March 11, 2026
Fears that artificial intelligence (AI) is already triggering widespread white collar job losses appear overstated when viewed through the lens of employment trends in AI exposed industries. While employment in computer systems design has softened since late 2022, data suggests this slowdown aligns more closely with post pandemic excesses than with the launch of generative AI. “Over-hiring, not AI, has likely been the bigger driver of much of the weakness in tech employment over the past few years,” says Garrett Melson, CFA, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.
Employment In AI Exposed Industries (1/31/15 - 6/30/25)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Employment trends diverge across AI exposed industries, underscoring that AI’s labor impact is uneven rather than universally disruptive.
- The sharp rise and subsequent cooling in tech employment mirrors the post COVID hiring surge and normalization cycle.
- Historically, productivity enhancing technologies tend to reshape labor demand over time rather than cause immediate, broad based job destruction.
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