Inflation takes center stage at the Fed
September 23, 2026
At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) assessment of risks shifted decisively toward price stability. Not a single committee member saw risks to growth skewed to the downside, while nearly every member saw inflation risks skewed to the upside. The projections suggest policymakers believe the economy can withstand additional tightening without significant damage to growth or employment. “But one thing is clear: the reaction function is being driven purely by the inflation side of the mandate,” says Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.
Source: Bloomberg.
- Sixteen of 18 officials projected at least one additional 25-basis-point hike before year-end 2026, with four penciling in two more hikes.
- The longer-run dot was revised up to 3.25%, reinforcing the view that the neutral rate had drifted higher.
- Inflation expectations remained well anchored at levels consistent with the Fed’s 2% target.
CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.
All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.
NIM-09222026-j43n3pip