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Hyperscalers split as AI trade enters new phase

January 07, 2026

The days of a single, monolithic artificial intelligence (AI) trade appear over. Investors are now focused on identifying true leaders and laggards as correlations among the major hyperscalers fall to their lowest levels since the launch of ChatGPT. “The AI narrative is shifting, and investors are becoming more selective as they determine where sustainable leadership is emerging,” according to Portfolio Strategist Garrett Melson. Although concerns about circular financing and uncertain returns persist, the AI trade is entering a new phase marked by greater dispersion, sharper competition, and shifting market leadership.

 

  • Correlations among hyperscalers have broken down, with Google’s recent performance helping to drive a widening gap across the group.
  • Significant AI investment is expected to continue into 2026, but uneven performance may present challenges for the Magnificent 7 as dispersion increases.
  • Companies receiving major CapEx investment may emerge as the real beneficiaries, helping to broaden market leadership beyond the traditional AI megacaps.

A hyperscaler is a cloud service provider that operates large-scale data centers, offering vast computing, storage, and networking resources to enable businesses to efficiently scale operations.

Capital expenditures (CapEx) are the funds companies allocate to acquire, upgrade, and maintain essential physical assets like property, technology, or equipment, crucial for expanding operational capacity and securing long-term economic benefits.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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