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How healthy is the US labor market?

June 11, 2025

US jobs growth for May beat consensus, with nonfarm payrolls rising 139,000 versus an expected 126,000 – while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.* But May’s stronger than expected job adds could be overstating the health of the labor market. “Payrolls growth may be holding up, but it has decisively slipped below the pre-pandemic average pace of jobs growth. Through the first five months of 2025, there is an average of 124,000 jobs being added per month. This is well below the pre-pandemic average of 178,000,” said Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (1/31/21 - 5/31/25)
Nonfarm Payrolls 1/31/21 - 5/31/25 * Source: Bloomberg
  • Private payrolls grew 140,000, while the government side lost 22,000 jobs.* 
  • Nearly half the job growth came from health care, adding 62,000, higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. 
  • On the downside, revisions to April and March jobs data were large and negative – revising  lower by 95,000.*
  • Negative revisions tend to correlate with slowing cyclical momentum in the economy. 

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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