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Hard data has been resilient, so far

May 28, 2025

Markets are impatient, and that is particularly the case today. Confidence has collapsed in the wake of the Liberation Day shock, dragging down soft survey-based data, as illustrated by the purple line in the chart. But that “confidence recession” has yet to manifest in the hard economic data. Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, points out this shock is not the sudden-stop variety investors remember from Covid. “While some impacts are likely to be felt more rapidly, namely reduced capex spending and slower hiring, even those have yet to show through in the hard data as activity has been pulled forward by businesses rushing to front-run tariffs,” says Garrett Melson.
 

Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index (5/31/18⁠–⁠5/14/25)
Bar chart showing the probability of a recession from mild to average to deep * Source: Natixis Investment Managers Solutions Portfolio Analysis & Consulting, Bloomberg. Data from 5/31/18 through 5/14/25)
  • Hard data represents data releases covering housing and real estate, industrial sector, labor market, personal/household sector, and retail & wholesale sector. Soft data represents data releases covering surveys and business cycle indicators.*
  • Resilient hard data, in addition to still-looming upside inflation risks, may be keeping the Fed sidelined on rate cuts, serving to passively tighten policy on an economy that may be organically cooling.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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