Contact us Account access
Back to role selection

Select your role to continue or return to the Natixis Investment Managers homepage

Financial professional

I am a wealth manager or financial advisor managing investments on behalf of my clients.

Select role

Institutional investor

I represent institutions searching for investment capabilities and solutions.

Select role

Individual investor

I manage my own investments.

Select role

Select your local site for products and services by region

Americas

Asia Pacific

Europe

Location not listed?

Products

Products

Investment capabilities​

Solutions

Solutions

From our experts

Insights

Insights

In focus

Investor sentiment

Resources

Fund resources

Education

About

Who we are​

Press

Careers

Contact us

Growth outlook signals supportive backdrop for stocks

February 11, 2026

Real growth is expected to hold near 2% this year and inflation continues to ease, creating conditions that have historically supported corporate earnings and steadier equity returns. “We may not have the most bullish of macro outlooks on the surface, but nominal growth in the range of 4%–5%, driven by trend levels of real growth and compressing inflation paired with a continued easing bias from the Fed, sure sounds like a supportive backdrop to us,” says Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. With recession risks contained by the Fed’s ongoing easing stance, the environment remains supportive for risk assets. Markets may not move in a straight line, but the broader setup continues to look constructive for investors. 

As of publishing, data is only available through September 2025

  • Periods of healthier nominal GDP have aligned with stronger forward earnings growth and higher equity returns. 
  • The S&P 500® Index has seen median growth in forward earnings estimates on the order of 8%, providing a healthy starting point for returns.
  • Historically, the market has delivered positive returns in 74 of the past 100 years, with the median positive year posting more than a 20% gain*, notes Melson.

*According to our analysis of S&P 500® returns.

Earnings per share (EPS) is a commonly used measure of a company's profitability. It indicates how much profit each outstanding share of common stock has earned.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) includes consumer spending, government spending, net exports, and total investments. It functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a country’s economic health.

*The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. The index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

NIM-02092026-xqzr9qir