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Easing job earnings hint at weaker core inflation

December 30, 2025

Wage growth is steadily easing, removing one of the key sources of upward pressure on inflation heading into 2026. “When every major measure of wage growth is drifting lower, it’s hard to see where a sustained inflation impulse is supposed to come from,” says Jack Janasiewicz, Portfolio Manager, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. With labor market momentum cooling, the backdrop increasingly favors softer, not hotter, inflation ahead.

 

Wage growth (3/31/19 - 10/31/25)
Wage growth (3/31/19 - 10/31/25) Source: Bloomberg
  • Job adds remain soft, muting the consumption impulse that typically fuels services inflation.
  • Various measures of wage growth are all heading down, signaling diminishing cost pressures, according to Janasiewicz.
  • A softening labor market combined with easing aggregate earnings points toward weaker core services inflation (the measure of price changes for services, excluding food and energy).

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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