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Dissaving, not income, drives consumer spending

March 04, 2026

Consumer spending has remained resilient despite rising unemployment and softening nominal wage growth, a divergence driven by a sharp drawdown in household savings. Through November 2025, real consumption grew 2.55% even as real disposable income excluding transfers rose just 0.46%, pushing the saving rate down nearly 1.5 percentage points in six months to 3.5%. While elevated home prices and financial assets have tightened the link between net worth and saving behavior, “investors expecting a meaningful boost to consumption in the first half may find themselves disappointed by a continued moderation in consumption instead,” says Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist.

Data as of November 2025 is the most current at the time of publishing.

Real consumption measures inflation-adjusted spending by households on goods and services, serving as a primary indicator of consumer activity in the U.S.

  • Real consumption has continued to outpace income growth as households rely on dissaving rather than rising wages.
  • The re-emergence of the net worth–saving relationship suggests wealth is influencing behavior, but not sustainably lifting demand.
  • Past periods of dissaving have tended to give way to softer consumption as income growth catches up.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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