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Can we count on alternative labor data?

October 08, 2025

September’s jobs report scheduled for release Oct. 2 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was cancelled due to the government shutdown – leaving many to rely on Automatic Data Processing (ADP) data instead. Trends in the ADP monthly report do tend to track closely with nonfarm payrolls growth from the BLS’s establishment survey over time, as the chart shows. However, ADP, the largest payrolls processor, still only covers about 10% of payroll employment.* “Labor market trends appear clearly established today. So one jobs report was unlikely to change that. The linear cooling trend is alive and well as labor demand remains weak,” explained Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

 

ADP vs. Nonfarm Payrolls (6/30/22 – 9/30/25)
ADP vs Nonfarm Payrolls (6/30/22 - 9/30/25) * Source: Bloomberg
  • ADP’s September report, released Oct. 1, posted a large downside surprise, contracting 32,000 vs. expectations of a 51,000 gain.* Much of this was a function of the inclusion of benchmark revisions announced in September.
  • Of the 10 industries tracked by ADP, just three saw positive payrolls growth – the fewest since the pandemic lows.
  • The lone industry seeing material jobs growth was education and health.*

* Source: Bloomberg

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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