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Are signs of inflation cool enough for the Fed to cut rates?

June 18, 2025

Inflation data came in cooler than expected for the fourth straight month in May. Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI (excludes energy and food prices) came in lower than expected at 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively, for the 12 months ending in May.  This data is further supporting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s inflation checklist. But a move by the Fed might still be a few months away. 
 

Powell's checklist: CPI (9/30/14 - 5/31/25)
Powell's Checklist: CPI (9/30/14 - 5/31/25) Source: Bloomberg
  • Top items on Powell’s checklist deflating are Core Goods (excludes food and energy) and Supercore Services (excludes all goods prices, food and energy prices, and housing costs), now running at a three-month annualized rate of just 0.12% - a level not seen since the pandemic.
  • Shelter prices (includes rent and owners’ equivalent rent) came in at 3.9%, the lowest rate since 2021. 
  • Areas of inflationary pressures for May: Tobacco and smoking products, motor vehicle parts and equipment, care and truck rentals, and pet services. 

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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