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AI vs. the consumer: Is growth narrowing?

May 20, 2026

Growth continues to hold up, but the drivers behind it are becoming increasingly concentrated. Over the past two quarters, AI-related investment has nearly matched the contribution to growth from consumption – a notable shift in what is sustaining economic activity. “With little room to continue compressing the saving rate, consumption is likely to begin converging toward the slower pace of income growth,” notes Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. While AI investment remains elevated, expectations for a slowdown in its growth rate suggest the current tailwind may eventually transition into a more modest, but still supportive, floor.

 

AI vs. the consumer (12/31/21–3/31/26)
AI vs. the Consumer (12/31/21–3/31/26) Source: Bloomberg.
  • AI-related investment has recently contributed nearly as much to growth as consumption, marking a shift in leadership. 
  • Consensus expectations point to a cooling in the rate of AI capex growth, even as overall spending remains elevated. 
  • Sustained growth will likely require a broader handoff beyond AI, as consumption and other drivers remain subdued.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

AI capex (artificial intelligence capital expenditure) refers to the funds companies allocate to acquire, upgrade, or build long-term infrastructure needed to develop and operate artificial intelligence systems. AI-related investment refers to allocating capital toward companies and assets involved in building, supporting, or monetizing artificial intelligence.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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