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AI investment now the lone driver of US growth

September 03, 2025

During the first half of 2025, artificial intelligence (AI) investment contributed more to real gross domestic product (GDP) growth than consumer spending.* “The US may be a consumer-driven economy, but with real consumption taking a breather through the first half of the year, the economy increasingly appears to be firing on just one cylinder: AI investment,” said Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.


AI investment vs. consumer spending (12/31/21–6/30/25)
AI investment vs. consumer spending (12/31/21–6/30/25)

*Source: Bloomberg.

Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP) is a measure of the value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period, adjusted for inflation using constant prices from a base year.

  • AI investment contributed almost 1% to real GDP in 1H.*
  • While the boost to growth from AI investment is encouraging, Melson believes the risk remains that slowing momentum in the broader US economy continues to weigh on labor markets to a degree that offsets the still powerful AI investment boom.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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