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AI CapEx surge fuels market momentum

June 10, 2026

The market narrative has swung decisively toward AI, with investment and equity performance reinforcing one another. “Gone are the days of concerns over unknown ROIs, declining free cash flow, and wasted capital,” says Garrett Melson, CFA®, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. “As long as more investment and compute lead to better models and wider use cases, the more that investment is validated in the eyes of investors. Given the latest batch of headlines around model advancements it’s no wonder markets are moving up and to the right on the back of tech.” This dynamic reflects a clear feedback loop, where innovation is justifying spend and sustaining broader market strength.

 

Tech Capex Contribution to Real GDP Growth (12/31/70 — 3/31/26)
tech-capex-contribution-to-real-gdp-growth-chart Source: Portfolio Analysis & Consulting. Bloomberg.
  • AI-related investment has contributed nearly 90 basis points to GDP growth on average over the past five quarters, exceeding dotcom-era peaks 
  • Spending on information processing equipment and software continues to underpin the AI buildout
  • Strong earnings tied to AI investment are helping support continued equity market gains

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of all final goods and services produced within an economy and is used to measure the economic activity of a country or region. QoQ SAAR represents quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized rate.

Capital expenditures (CapEx) are the funds companies allocate to acquire, upgrade, and maintain essential physical assets like property, technology, or equipment, crucial for expanding operational capacity and securing long-term economic benefits. 

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

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