Mega IPOs and other shakeups: what effects on private markets?
July 24, 2026
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8 min
Introduction
2026 is about to be a turning point for global markets driven by a new wave of mega IPOs in technology and artificial intelligence, including OpenAI and Anthropic. The trend has already been set in motion by the IPO of SpaceX.
2026 could be the year of the most anticipated mega-IPOs: SpaceX, Anthropic, Open AI…especially in the tech sector. Could that affect the private equity space as a whole, and how?
The SpaceX listing was a massive event. Investor demand was exceptionally strong, pushing valuation to very ambitious levels. However, the first days of trading were marked by significant volatility with sharp price swings reflecting both enthusiasm and uncertainty. This dynamic highlighted the risk of excess valuation and the speed at which public markets can reprice even the most iconic assets.
The scale of this transactions is unprecedented. Together, these IPOs could represent trillions of dollars in market capitalisation and generate more than $100 billion in proceeds. This rivals several years of US venture-backed IPO activity. In the short term, this concentration is crowding out the broader IPO market and redirecting institutional capital toward a limited number of large deals.
If these IPOs perform well, they could validate AI valuations, boost LP confidence and fundraising. If they disappoint, they risk extending today’s valuation reset and liquidity stress across venture and late stage PE portfolios. Post IPO performance will be this decisive for valuations, investor confidence, and the next fundraising cycle across private markets.
A lot of private credit funds, especially in the US, had to limit redemptions recently. Do you think this risk could spread to other geographies and asset classes? Does that question the relevance of the evergreen fund model for private assets retail funds?
Recent redemption events and gating in US BDCs, that is to say business development companies, a listed investment vehicle that funds private companies mainly through lending, were expected by our team because these platforms have been increasingly exposed in recent months, often appearing in discussion around credit stress. Combined with broader concerns on private debt, equity market volatility and tech sector uncertainty, this triggered significant investor outflows from these funds.
At the same time, record levels of dry powder are raising questions about underwriting discipline. While leverage remains prudent and defaults are contained, credit quality is under pressure with more restructuring downgrades and use of payment in kind. This is a form of interest where the borrower does not pay cash but adds the interest to the loan principle increasing the debt over time. A rise in payment in kind usage in private debt typically signals weakening credit quality as it increases leverage, masks borrower stress, and can elevate default risk over time.
A key takeaway on top of assets quality is the importance of fund construction. Liquidity buffers, cashflow stability, and notice periods are critical. As a result, we still remain cautious on US private debt. We favour European private debt and prioritise experienced credit specialists with strong risk cultures.
These events don’t challenge the relevance of evergreen private asset funds, but they do remind us that these vehicles are inherently illiquid. So it’s essential to be very clear with investors: a fund investing in private markets will never offer the same liquidity as a listed ETF and commercial messaging must be as clear and transparent as possible on this point.
What are your perspectives for each private asset class for the rest of the year?
The economic environment remains marked by persistent geopolitical uncertainties recently exacerbated by tensions in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices in a context where global valuation chains continue to reconfigure. The pause in monetary easing cycles driven by inflationary risk is sustaining elevated volatility and a more pronounced risk aversion.
Private equity is evolving in a contrasted environment characterised by a gradual but uneven recovery. Following a rebound in 2025, the beginning of 2026 highlighted the market sensitivity to exogenous shocks with a slowdown in transaction activity and continuing challenges in fundraising.
Valuations remain elevated but increasingly differentiated while value creation relies more on operational performance. Exit conditions are gradually improving while the secondary market is becoming a key liquidity management tool.
Venture capital remains concentrated on structurally attractive themes such as artificial intelligence, energy transition, and life sciences. In this new environment, value creation is increasingly driven by EBITDA growth in portfolio companies with much less reliance on leverage and financial engineering.
Private credit, while still offering attractive yield, is operating in a new and more uncertain environment. Higher rates continue to support carry but are accompanied by a gradual deterioration in certain risk indicators. Stress observed in selected US issuers and concerns around the liquidity of certain retail vehicles have reignited questions about the asset class.
By contrast, the European market appears more resilient supported by a more institutional investor base although selectivity remains essential in the context of increasing dispersion.
Infrastructure valuations have stabilised and remain broadly in line with historical averages. The asset class continues to benefit from favourable structural trends, particularly linked to the energy transition and the development of digital infrastructure. The mid market segment continues to offer attractive entry points while infrastructure debt maintains a compelling risk return profile.
Real estate markets are showing some signs of recovery with transaction activity gradually picking up. But the momentum remains fragile and closely tied to the path of interest rates. Trends are still uneven across segments. Healthcare, specialised residential and data centres continue to benefit from strong structural tailwinds while hospitality is stabilising and retail momentum is moderating after its recent rebound. Logistics is facing softer fundamentals while the office sector continues its gradual rebalancing.
What are the things you are personally the most excited about in private markets for the rest of the year?
What I found particularly exciting in private markets for the rest of the year is the depth of structural opportunities across sectors. In venture capital, we are closely watching everything related to healthcare and artificial intelligence while innovation is accelerating rapidly and supported by strong long-term growth drivers.
At the same time, the current geopolitical environment and ongoing tensions around energy and oil markets are likely to further accelerate the transition toward renewable energy, creating opportunities across infrastructure, private equity and private debt.
In that context, multi-private asset strategies make even more sense today. Having a manager able to allocate dynamically across asset classes, sectors and geographies and to select the right GPs is key to building a resilient long-term portfolio that adapts to economic cycle and structural transformations.
We also see well structured evergreen funds with robust management processes and above all with strong liquidity frameworks increasingly coming to the forefront. This ability to stay selective, flexible and diversified is in my view, one of the most effective ways to navigate today’s private markets environment.