Bank loans and high yield bond returns have been highly correlated for much of the past decade. But it wasn’t always that way. Before the global financial crisis (GFC), the asset classes were not strongly correlated – and signs of that decoupling have recently reemerged. It’s a significant shift, but one that’s in line with the asset classes’ characteristics and the typical market response to changing interest rates. Here, we’ll look at what drives the relationship between loans and high yield bonds, and why the recent shift matters for fixed income investors.
Understanding the Relationship
To better understand what drives the correlation between the two asset classes, we think it’s important to consider two key differences:
- The risk differential. Both high yield bonds and loans are below-investment-grade debt, but loans are senior in a company’s capital structure (they get paid back first in a restructuring) and are secured by a company’s assets. High yield bonds are often further down in the capital structure and generally not secured by a company’s assets. High yield bonds generally yield more than loans to compensate investors for less security.
- The coupon differential. High yield bonds have fixed coupons, while loans have floating coupons that adjust to rate changes. When interest rates rise, bond prices tend to drop to adjust for higher coupons available on newly issued fixed-rate bonds. Loan prices tend to remain relatively steady as their coupons float to match interest rate shifts.
Fed Policy: A Game Changer for Correlations
The major shifts in Federal Reserve policy during the GFC changed the game for loan and high yield bond correlations. For roughly the first half of the loan market’s history, loan and high yield returns weren’t highly correlated. From the end of 1992 through the third quarter of 2007, the median 12-month correlation between the two asset classes was 0.45.1 Then the GFC happened, and this figure changed to 0.82 between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the third quarter of 2021.2
High Yield and Leveraged Loans: Rolling 12-Month Correlations
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Total Return Index, ICE BofA US High Yield Index, US Federal Funds Effective Rate (continuous series), as of 31 March 2022.
As the Fed began to signal a new and potentially aggressive hiking cycle, the higher correlation between loans and high yield bonds began to break down. The decline began in March 2021, when the 12-month correlation between the two asset classes dropped to 0.793 after a few years of nearly perfectly correlated returns.4 That decline accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2021, and it has remained below 0.50 since December 2021.
The prospect of imminent short-term rate hikes caused many investors to consider the impact of rising rates on the interest-rate-sensitive instruments in their fixed income portfolios. The longer the duration, the larger the potential price impact. The greater the expectation of rising rates, the more attractive floating-rate paper likely looked. This caused loan and high yield bond returns to diverge. Loans returned 0.38% over the past five months, while high yield bonds returned -3.70%.5
Why It Matters
In our view, the value of loans as a credit diversifier is becoming more apparent as correlations between high yield bonds and loans break down. Investors became accustomed to treating loans and high yield as interchangeable asset classes during the prolonged period of low interest rates. We believe that thinking has shifted in the past few months. With the Fed set to continue raising rates, the complementary nature of the two asset classes is becoming more tangible thanks to the divergence of returns. Investors may be able to use loans to offset the greater credit and interest rate risk of high yield bonds while earning floating-rate income from senior, secured loans. We do not know how long this correlation relationship will persist, but it should remind investors of the beneficial diversification effect of adding loans to their credit allocations.
Bank Loan & High Yield Strategies
Diversifying portfolios with bank loan strategies may help minimize interest rate impact, while high yield strategies may help investors pursue more income to meet their long-term needs.
Want more information on bank loan and high yield strategies?
2 Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index, ICE BofA US High Yield Index; rolling 12-month correlations of monthly returns from October 2007 through September 2021.
3 Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Total Return Index, ICE BofA US High Yield Index; as of 31 March 2021.
4 Rolling 12-month correlations (rolling periods) of monthly returns from 30 April 2020 through 28 February 2021 showed nearly perfectly correlated returns (average 0.97).
5 Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index, ICE BofA US High Yield Index; returns for the five months ending 31 March 2022.
All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions expressed are as of April 2022 and may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary.
This document may contain references to copyrights, indexes and trademarks that may not be registered in all jurisdictions. Third party registrations are the property of their respective owners and are not affiliated with Natixis Investment Managers or any of its related or affiliated companies (collectively “Natixis”). Such third party owners do not sponsor, endorse or participate in the provision of any Natixis services, funds or other financial products.
Loomis Sayles High Income Fund Risks: Below investment grade (high yield) fixed income securities may be subject to greater risks (including the risk of default) than other fixed income securities. Fixed income securities may carry one or more of the following risks: credit, interest rate (as interest rates rise bond prices usually fall), inflation and liquidity. Foreign and emerging market securities may be subject to greater political, economic, environmental, credit, currency and information risks. Foreign securities may be subject to higher volatility than US securities, due to varying degrees of regulation and limited liquidity. These risks are magnified in emerging markets.
Loomis Sayles Senior Floating Rate and Fixed Income Fund Risks: Floating rate loans are often lower-quality debt securities and may involve greater risk of price changes and greater risk of default on interest and principal payments. The market for floating rate loans is largely unregulated and these assets usually do not trade on an organized exchange. As a result, floating rate loans can be relatively illiquid and hard to value. Fixed income securities may carry one or more of the following risks: credit, interest rate (as interest rates rise bond prices usually fall), inflation and liquidity. Below investment grade (high yield) fixed income securities may be subject to greater risks (including the risk of default) than other fixed income securities. Leverage can increase market exposure and magnify investment risk. Foreign and emerging market securities may be subject to greater political, economic, environmental, credit, currency and information risks. Foreign securities may be subject to higher volatility than US securities, due to varying degrees of regulation and limited liquidity. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Non-diversified funds invest a greater portion of assets in fewer securities and therefore may be more vulnerable to adverse changes in the market.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
Before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Visit im.natixis.com or call 800-225-5478 for a prospectus or a summary prospectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully.