Covid-19 Dashboard: Actively Managing a Dynamic Risk Landscape
An Improving Covid-19 Outlook
Investors who are contemplating bailing on this market because it seems frothy or exuberant may want to consider the following. Daily Covid-19 case counts are rolling over – and rolling over pretty hard.
US Tests vs Confirmed Cases
Source: CDC; Natixis PRCG Covid Tracking Project.
Current US Hospitalizations
Source: CDC; Natixis PRCG Covid Tracking Project. Note not all states report current hospitalizations. Data may include lag in reporting.
US Confirmed Cases & Deaths
Source: CDC; Natixis PRCG Covid Tracking Project.
US Vaccination Progress
Source: CDC; Natixis PRCG Covid Tracking Project.
Daily Vaccinations to Daily Cases
Source: CDC; Natixis PRCG Covid Tracking Project.
Vaccines administered as a % of vaccines distributed is pushing higher. It’s up to 70% now.
States are getting better at distribution. In other words: Given time to work, they’re figuring it out.
Vaccine Administration vs. Distribution
Source: CDC; Natixis PRCG Covid Tracking Project.
Between Pfizer and Moderna, the US government has now purchased 600 million vaccine doses, up 200 million from the end of January. Additional supplies from Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca/Oxford will be hitting the markets soon as well.
Vaccine Math
The vaccine suppliers have targeted production of 200 million doses of the vaccine by end of 1Q21. So far, they have delivered 60 million doses – so largely on track. They expect some 600 million doses by end of July. This is not that much of a stretch given current run rates. The US government is targeting 40 million vaccinations each month. If we include CVS, Walgreens, and Walmart as part of the distribution effort, that number should get up to 100 million per month. This scenario puts the US on pace to hit 600 million vaccines distributed by end of July – right on schedule.
If we assume that 70% of distributed vaccines are administered (the current rate today) and apply that to the 600 million doses targeted to be produced by end of July, that gets us to 420 million vaccines by end of July.
Assuming a one-month window in between each dose, that would get us to 180 million people fully vaccinated (2 doses) and 30 million partially vaccinated (1 dose) by end of July. Recent surveys show that some 70% of American adults are willing to be vaccinated. If there are 255 million adult Americans, this means 180 million of them are willing to be vaccinated. At the current rates outlined above, that’s the same number of fully vaccinated people that the data is projecting.
The bottom line? If all goes to plan, 70% of the US adult population could be fully vaccinated by mid-summer. The takeaway? Things are getting better.
Putting Vaccinations into a Market Context
Since the initial Pfizer vaccination news, a lot of money has come pouring back into equities.
Weekly ETF and Long-Only Flows: All Equities
Source: FactSet, EPFR
International has been the only net beneficiary from retail. Japan too.
Regional Equity Exposure: Cumulative Flows
Source: FactSet, EPFR
Cumulative Japanese Equity Fund Flows
Source: FactSet, EPFR, Bank of Japan.


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