• In the United States, vaccine production and distribution numbers remain encouraging. As of mid-March 2021, the potential for approximately 700 million doses being made available by the end of the summer season may be underappreciated by markets.
  • According to Janasiewicz, there is a difference between inflation risk and reflation as a product of a return to more normalized economic growth. Robust fiscal aid and monetary policy support do not guarantee immediate risk of runaway inflation. By contrast, market data suggests that inflation is normalizing as the pandemic recovery continues.
  • While sectors of the economy more sensitive to pandemic factors are seeing some price increases, less sensitive sectors are seeing prices weaken. Additionally, there is evidence that significant slack in the US labor market remains. Although the recovery is continuing, data suggests the US labor force participation rate remains depressed.
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