The Market Giveth, the Market Taketh
Jack Janasiewicz offers his tactical take on the macroeconomic environment in this podcast recorded on March 6, 2023.
- Stocks declined in February after a strong start to the year and yields rose in the bond market as payroll, retail sales, and inflation prints all came in stronger than expected.
- Seasonal adjustments likely played a large role and we remain a bit skeptical that the January data was really as hot as the market thinks.
- As a result, maybe the data will cool and we’ll see some giveback in the coming months.
- Interestingly, the segments of the market that tend to fare poorly in a higher-rate environment – materials, consumer discretionary, industrials – outperformed during the month.
- Meanwhile, sectors that tend to do well with higher rates – utilities, healthcare, staples – are struggling.
- There’s a serious rewriting of the prevailing narrative going on, but we need to question the reliability of the recent “hot” data prints. One print does not make a trend.
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