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Jack Janasiewicz offers his tactical take on the macroeconomic environment in this podcast recorded on June 8, 2023.
  • Disinflation is continuing and broadening out, and supercore services (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure) rose just 0.1% in the most recent data print.
  • The Fed uses supercore services (service inflation less food, energy, and shelter costs) as a proxy for wage growth. Moderation in supercore services is taking pressure off the Fed to push rates higher.
  • The jobs report issued June 2 was the 14th consecutive month where the actual number beat the estimate – tough day for the bears and the economic forecasters alike.
  • While there could potentially be a revision to the strong labor numbers, this report simply doesn’t give any indications that a recession is imminent.
  • Regarding bearish concerns about narrow stock market breadth, history shows that bull markets tend to be led by a smaller percentage of names… but we’ll be watching.
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Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. The views and opinions are as of June 8, 2023 and may change based on market and other conditions. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary. Although Natixis Investment Managers believes the information provided in this material to be reliable, including that from third party sources, it does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

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