Jack Janasiewicz offers his tactical take on the macroeconomic environment in this podcast recorded on June 8, 2023.
- Disinflation is continuing and broadening out, and supercore services (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure) rose just 0.1% in the most recent data print.
- The Fed uses supercore services (service inflation less food, energy, and shelter costs) as a proxy for wage growth. Moderation in supercore services is taking pressure off the Fed to push rates higher.
- The jobs report issued June 2 was the 14th consecutive month where the actual number beat the estimate – tough day for the bears and the economic forecasters alike.
- While there could potentially be a revision to the strong labor numbers, this report simply doesn’t give any indications that a recession is imminent.
- Regarding bearish concerns about narrow stock market breadth, history shows that bull markets tend to be led by a smaller percentage of names… but we’ll be watching.
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