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Jack Janasiewicz offers his tactical take on the macroeconomic environment in this podcast recorded on July 11, 2023.
  • Despite the bears’ insistence that a recession is coming, we are still in the soft landing camp through the end of the year.
  • The supportive catalysts that helped power the bull market in the first half of 2023 are still in place for the second half.
  • We’ve actually added two more catalysts to the list: residential investment and capital spending on structures and equipment in the US.
  • Recent legislation passed by the Biden administration is trying to reinvigorate US-based manufacturing by requiring firms to be “in-country” – and domestic and foreign demand for US factory capacity has fueled a boom.
  • We just made it through three macro birthdays: Quantitative Tapering, the interest rate hiking cycle, and the yield curve inversion all turned one in the past month.
  • How did Mr. Market celebrate? By generating year-to-date gains of more than 16% on the S&P 500® and over 32% on the Nasdaq.
  • And looking at the historical data, a strong first half has led to further gains in the second half about 75% of the time.
  • The risk to this outlook? Inflation. It still remains higher than the Federal Reserve would like to see, so that’s a wildcard.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. The views and opinions are as of July 11, 2023 and may change based on market and other conditions. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted. Actual results may vary. Although Natixis Investment Managers believes the information provided in this material to be reliable, including that from third party sources, it does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.

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