Jack Janasiewicz offers his tactical take on the macroeconomic environment in this podcast recorded on July 11, 2023.
- Despite the bears’ insistence that a recession is coming, we are still in the soft landing camp through the end of the year.
- The supportive catalysts that helped power the bull market in the first half of 2023 are still in place for the second half.
- We’ve actually added two more catalysts to the list: residential investment and capital spending on structures and equipment in the US.
- Recent legislation passed by the Biden administration is trying to reinvigorate US-based manufacturing by requiring firms to be “in-country” – and domestic and foreign demand for US factory capacity has fueled a boom.
- We just made it through three macro birthdays: Quantitative Tapering, the interest rate hiking cycle, and the yield curve inversion all turned one in the past month.
- How did Mr. Market celebrate? By generating year-to-date gains of more than 16% on the S&P 500® and over 32% on the Nasdaq.
- And looking at the historical data, a strong first half has led to further gains in the second half about 75% of the time.
- The risk to this outlook? Inflation. It still remains higher than the Federal Reserve would like to see, so that’s a wildcard.
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